Monday, August 11, 2003

There's something rotten in the State of California. Three very different, divergent polls have been released in the last few days:

In the CNN-Time Poll taken last week Arnold leads the Lieutenant Governor 25-15%. A Majority support the recall.

In the MSNBC poll Arnold leads 31-18. 59% favored recalling Davis.

In the most amazing poll result from 10 News and Survey USA, the State terminates Davis with extreme prejudice (66% favor recalling) and then Arnold terminates Lt. Governor Bustamante (51-17%). Now folks, people do not change their minds so quickly.

The polls are varying so much on the top two questions that it's ridiculous. One big problem may be that none took a big enough sample, each asked around 500 voters and I have a stinking suspicion that a larger sample will lead to a different result.

The only way this shift is even possible is if California voters have decided: 1) Davis will be recalled, 2) Arnold will be the next governor, 3) the state needs to be unified. The higher the vote for Arnold, the easier it will be for him to govern, the easier it will be for him to resolve the state's impossible problems. For Californians to make such a quick analysis seems unlikely. Rather the sample is probably very flawed.